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Looking at possible turnout scenarios, a lower voter turnout is definitely to the benefit of the ANC, as reported in previous Ipsos press releases about this topic. In fact, turnout will probably be the key variable in the election on 29 May 2024. 

As 29 May approaches, with widespread speculation surrounding the potential performance of political parties in the upcoming national and provincial elections, the pivotal determinant of success rests on getting voters to the polling stations. Those parties with the ability to effectively mobilise their voter base and inspire supporters to cast their ballots may hold an advantage over those that fail to engage their supporters and neglect to prioritise voter turnout initiatives.

To develop realistic voter turnout scenarios, Ipsos employs a multifaceted approach that considers key indicators such as interest in politics, desire to vote, stated intention to vote, and depth of party loyalty. By analysing responses to this series of carefully crafted survey questions, Ipsos' proprietary algorithm generates three distinct turnout scenarios. The latest data reveals an uptick in voter engagement compared to the previous turnout projections, which were based on fieldwork conducted in December 2023. (Findings available in the Ipsos Press Release dated 6 February 2024, Support for Political Parties).

The most recent voter turnout models, based on the latest calculations and projections, outline three potential scenarios, with projected turnout ranges edging slightly higher across all three scenarios compared to the estimates published earlier.

Should the current trends hold, a low voter turnout scenario – in which only the most committed voters participate – could see between 41% and 43% of registered voters heading to the polls. In a medium turnout scenario, the model indicates that the voter turnout rate may be between 57% and 59%. On the high end, Ipsos’ projections suggest that as many as 74% to 76% of registered voters could cast their ballots if voter enthusiasm reaches its peak.

It is probably unrealistic to expect such a high voter turnout, due to the current sentiment among voters, and the modelling shows that a low voter turnout will be to the advantage of the ANC – pushing the ruling party closer to achieving 50% of the vote and implying that the ANC will need a smaller party as a coalition partner to form a future government.

Issued by Ipsos